Portfolio Management Simulation – Atharva Capital

1-line summary

I managed a $1M simulated portfolio over 45 days, starting defensively and rotating into undervalued equities during market drawdowns to generate meaningful alpha versus the S&P 500.

Overview

This project was a live portfolio management simulation where I managed a $1,000,000 portfolio using Bloomberg’s PRTU function over a 45-day period, from March 1 to April 15, 2025. Rather than treating this as a trading exercise, I approached it as if I were managing real client capital. Every allocation decision was driven by valuation, margin of safety, and conviction, not by the need to stay fully invested. The portfolio evolved dynamically as market conditions changed, moving from a defensive posture into concentrated equity positions as opportunities emerged.

Project Motivation

When the simulation began, markets across both the U.S. and India felt stretched. Valuations were high, sentiment was optimistic, and I did not see many opportunities that met my criteria for downside protection. Instead of forcing capital into expensive equities, I made a conscious decision to start defensively. My goal was not to maximize activity, but to preserve flexibility. This project was about answering one question: Can discipline and patience outperform forced participation over a short and volatile window?

Decision-Making Process

Starting defensively I began the portfolio fully allocated to a Gold ETF (IAUM), as a strategic placeholder while I waited for equity valuations to reset.

First rotation into equities: Polycab On March 3, Polycab dropped sharply on news of a potential new entrant. I viewed this as a market overreaction and initiated a 10% position.

Conviction under pressure: NVDA and Phinia On March 13, I initiated positions in NVDA and Phinia following sharp declines. I averaged down in NVDA as markets sold off further, allowing the position to grow to roughly 20%.

Expanding into India during volatility Between March 25 and April 8, I added Mahindra & Mahindra, Goldiam, and HDFC Bank as global markets weakened.

Risk Framework and Portfolio Construction

I ran the portfolio with a concentrated, high-conviction mindset. When valuation offered downside protection, I was comfortable allocating 10% or more to a single idea. The portfolio evolved from 100% gold to roughly 80% equities and 20% gold by the end of the period. Exposure was split across U.S. and Indian markets.

Results and Impact

By rotating capital from gold into undervalued equities during periods of fear, the portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 over the simulation window. More importantly, performance came from process, not prediction. I waited, acted selectively, and sized positions based on conviction rather than noise.

Reflections and Lessons

Patience beats activity. Starting defensively created flexibility to buy when others were forced sellers. Conviction must be earned. NVDA reminded me how narrative can overpower discipline. Geographic familiarity matters. My deeper understanding of Indian companies improved decisions under stress. Short windows test discipline, not brilliance.

Conclusion

This simulation was less about outperforming a benchmark and more about understanding myself as a portfolio manager. Markets fall faster than they rise, fear creates opportunity, and patience is not passive, it is preparatory.